DigitEye India Fact Checkers
A post being circulated in social media claimed that the recent World Economic Outlook report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that India will be poorer than Bangladesh by 2025. The caption reads:
“India becoming poorer and poorer – ANOTHER SHOCKING REPORT BY IMF !!!*INDIA WILL POORER THAN BANGLADESH BY 2025*”
India becoming poorer and poorer ANOTHER SHOCKING REPORT BY IMF !!!*
_*INDIA WILL POORER THAN BANGLADESH BY 2025*_ pic.twitter.com/0YBNUiizxk
— thangminlien haokip (@thangminli88118) April 6, 2024
Another X user shared it with a remark:”This is very unprecedented. Modi has put India’s future at sake. India is No more a “Developing Nation” now(sic)”. It has been shared here and here.
FACT CHECK
When Digiteye India checked for the authenticity of the claim, we came across similar claims made in 2020 and in 2021 when the Covid pandemic gripped the entire world economies, including India’s. Accordingly, the IMF 2020 report illustrated how India had fallen behind Bangladesh in terms of real per capita GDP growth at $1,876.53, slightly below Bangladesh’s projection of $1,887.97 in dollar terms.
The latest IMF report that was published in April 2024, titled, World Economic Outlook, provided growth predictions for India’s GDP 6.8% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025. Similarly, the report placed on record its projections for Bangladesh’s GDP growth at 5.7% in 2024 and 6.6% in 2025.
However, growth rate does not reflect the overall GDP growth of a country. Moreover, as per the 2024 IMF report, the projection was per capita GDP, which never gives a country’s total wealth. The total GDP and per capita GDP differ hugely since the latter takes into account population, calculated by dividing the total GDP by the population. In terms of total GDP, the same IMF report projects India’s GDP to reach $4.3 trillion in 2025, whereas Bangladesh’s is expected to reach merely $491.81 billion or less half-a-billion.
Leaving behind the pandemic period’s report, the 2024 IMF forecast shows India’s per capita GDP to reach $2,730, compared to Bangladesh’s $2,650. Hence, India’s per capita GDP will continue to be above that of Bangladesh and the trend is likely to continue at least through 2028, according to the latest estimates. In terms of Power Purchasing Parity (PPP) too, India’s GDP at PPP per capita is projected to reach $10,870 by 2025, compared to Bangladesh’s $10,170.
Hence, the claim that India will be poorer than Bangladesh is misleading.
Claim: IMF in its April 2024 report on World Economic Outlook stated that “India will be poorer than Bangladesh by 2025”.
Conclusion: The claim is false. It was based on 2020 pandemic period projections, whereas the current IMF forecast says India will be far ahead of Bangladesh in terms of total GDP growth by 2025.
Rating: Misrepresentation — 
